Implied Probability

Implied probability is the likelihood of an outcome expressed by the bookmaker’s odds.

It shows what chance the odds assign to a specific result.

How it works

• Calculated from decimal odds

• Formula: Implied Probability = 1 ÷ Odds

• Expressed as a percentage

Example

• Odds: 2.50

• Implied probability: 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40%

Key characteristics

• Allows comparison between odds and true probability

• Core tool for identifying value bets

• Includes bookmaker margin

Important note
Implied probability is not the true probability—bookmaker margin inflates the numbers.