Peyton Stearns vs Amanda Anisimova – Tennis Prediction & Odds

Match Preview

As the Australian Open continues to heat up, a compelling second-round encounter awaits us on the hard courts of Melbourne, pitting Peyton Stearns against the highly talented Amanda Anisimova. This clash carries significant weight for both athletes, as they vie for a coveted spot further into the tournament’s draw. Stearns, known for her aggressive baseline play, will look to continue her momentum, while Anisimova, a powerful ball-striker with a penchant for big-stage performances, aims to assert her dominance and make a deep run. This matchup is more than just a battle of rackets; it’s a test of wills, form, and adaptation on the biggest stage Down Under.

Prediction Type	Prediction	Confidence
Match Winner	Amanda Anisimova to Win	High

Betting Analysis

The market has clearly positioned Amanda Anisimova as the overwhelming favorite for this contest, with her odds sitting at a formidable 1.14, suggesting a high probability of victory. Peyton Stearns, conversely, enters as a significant underdog at 5.8. This stark difference in odds immediately signals the perceived gulf in class and current hard-court form between the two players. Our analysis will delve into whether the data supports such a strong conviction from the bookmakers, particularly when considering their singular head-to-head meeting and their respective performances on hard courts throughout the past two seasons. The total games line is set at a remarkably tight 19.0, with the 'under’ slightly favored at 1.92, implying expectations of a relatively swift encounter, potentially decided in straight sets.

Peyton Stearns Results

Date	Competition	Matchup	Result	Outcome
2026-01-22	Australian Open – Melbourne	Peyton Stearns vs Petra Marcinko	6-2 7-5	W
2026-01-19	Australian Open – Melbourne	Peyton Stearns vs Sofia Kenin	6-3 6-2	W
2026-01-14	Hobart International – Hobart	Peyton Stearns vs Olga Danilovic	7-6(2) 6-1	L
2026-01-13	Hobart International – Hobart	Peyton Stearns vs Barbora Krejcikova	6-4 1-6 7-6(4)	W
2026-01-05	ASB Classic – Auckland	Peyton Stearns vs Kaitlin Quevedo	6-2 7-5	L

Peyton Stearns arrives in Melbourne boasting a respectable overall win rate of 60% across all surfaces in recent play, indicating a generally competitive player. However, a deeper dive into her surface-specific statistics reveals a clear preference for clay. In 2025, Stearns registered an impressive 66% win rate on clay (8 wins, 4 losses), mirroring her 64% success on the red dirt in 2024 (11 wins, 6 losses). The narrative shifts dramatically when we examine her hard-court performance, which is directly relevant to the Australian Open. In 2025, Stearns struggled on hard courts, posting a disappointing 39% win rate with 9 wins and 14 losses. Her 2024 hard-court record was only marginally better at 46% (13 wins, 15 losses). Despite these less-than-stellar hard-court numbers, Stearns has shown resilience at the current Australian Open, securing two straight-set victories. She dispatched Petra Marcinko with a confident 6-2, 7-5 scoreline and followed it up by defeating Sofia Kenin 6-3, 6-2. These recent wins demonstrate her ability to perform on the surface, but they contrast sharply with her overall hard-court statistics from the preceding year.

Amanda Anisimova Results

Date	Competition	Matchup	Result	Outcome
2026-01-22	Australian Open – Melbourne	Amanda Anisimova vs Katerina Siniakova	6-1 6-4	W
2026-01-19	Australian Open – Melbourne	Amanda Anisimova vs Simona Waltert	6-3 6-2	W
2026-01-08	Brisbane International – Brisbane	Amanda Anisimova vs Marta Kostyuk	6-4 6-3	L
2026-01-07	Brisbane International – Brisbane	Amanda Anisimova vs Kimberly Birrell	6-1 6-3	W
2025-11-07	WTA Finals – Riyadh	Amanda Anisimova vs Aryna Sabalenka	6-3 3-6 6-3	L

Amanda Anisimova also enters this match with a 60% overall win rate in her recent form, but her surface-specific data paints a picture of a player far more comfortable and dominant on hard courts. In 2025, Anisimova showcased exceptional form on hard courts, achieving a commanding 75% win rate with an impressive 25 wins against just 8 losses. This builds on her strong 2024 hard-court performance, where she recorded a 70% win rate (17 wins, 7 losses). Beyond hard courts, Anisimova has also proven highly effective on grass, with an 80% win rate in 2025. Her recent run at the Australian Open has been nothing short of dominant; she swept aside Katerina Siniakova 6-1, 6-4, and dispatched Simona Waltert 6-3, 6-2. These performances not only highlight her current excellent form but also her efficiency, securing victories in minimal games. Although she suffered a loss to Marta Kostyuk in Brisbane earlier in the season, her overall hard-court pedigree and recent Australian Open displays are incredibly strong indicators of her current prowess.

Head-to-Head

Date	Competition	Matchup	Result
2025-04-25	Mutua Madrid Open – Madrid	Peyton Stearns vs Amanda Anisimova	6-2 2-6 7-5

The head-to-head record between Peyton Stearns and Amanda Anisimova stands at a fascinating 1-0 in favor of Stearns. Their sole previous encounter took place on April 25, 2025, at the Mutua Madrid Open on clay. Stearns emerged victorious in a hard-fought three-set battle, winning 6-2, 2-6, 7-5. This result is significant because it demonstrates that Stearns possesses the game and mental fortitude to defeat Anisimova. It undoubtedly provides a psychological boost for Stearns, knowing she has previously overcome her opponent. However, the critical context here is the surface: that match was played on clay, a surface where Stearns historically thrives and Anisimova has a less dominant record (61% win rate in 2025, 33% in 2024). This current match is on hard court, a surface where Anisimova’s statistics are vastly superior to Stearns’. While Stearns holds the H2H advantage, the change in surface dramatically alters the dynamics and perhaps lessens the direct predictive power of that clay court victory for this Australian Open hard-court showdown.

Key Factors

Surface Dominance: Amanda Anisimova’s hard-court statistics are overwhelmingly superior. Her 75% hard-court win rate in 2025 and 70% in 2024 starkly contrast with Peyton Stearns’ 39% and 46% on the same surface.
Recent Australian Open Form: Anisimova has been clinical in her opening two matches, securing dominant straight-set wins with very few games dropped. Stearns also has two straight-set wins, but against lower-ranked opponents.
Head-to-Head Context: While Stearns holds a 1-0 H2H lead, that victory occurred on clay, which is Stearns’ strongest surface. The transition to hard court, Anisimova’s preferred domain, significantly shifts the tactical landscape.
Betting Market Sentiment: The heavy odds favoring Anisimova (1.14) align perfectly with her strong hard-court record and current form, reflecting market confidence in her ability to control this match.
Psychological Edge: Stearns has proven she can beat Anisimova, which might provide a psychological boost, but Anisimova’s current hard-court confidence likely mitigates this.
Match Length Expectation: The total games line of 19.0 suggests a relatively quick match. Anisimova’s recent wins went under this total, indicating her propensity for efficient victories.

Final Verdict

Considering all the statistical data and contextual factors, the prediction for this Australian Open encounter must lean decisively towards Amanda Anisimova. Her hard-court pedigree is simply too dominant to ignore, evidenced by her 75% win rate in 2025 and her equally impressive 70% in 2024 on this surface. This is a stark contrast to Peyton Stearns’ sub-50% hard-court win rates over the same period. While Stearns holds a psychological edge from their lone head-to-head meeting, that was on clay, her strongest surface, not the hard courts of Melbourne where Anisimova thrives. Anisimova’s recent performances at the Australian Open have been nothing short of clinical, securing two straight-set victories with minimal resistance. Her powerful game is perfectly suited for these conditions, allowing her to dictate points and close out matches efficiently. The betting market’s strong confidence in Anisimova (1.14 odds) is well-founded and supported by the raw numbers. We anticipate Anisimova to assert her authority early and maintain it throughout, securing a victory that confirms her status as a serious contender at this tournament. The total games line of 19.0 also suggests a relatively quick affair, and Anisimova’s recent results (17 games in both AO wins) align with her capability to cover the 'under’. Amanda Anisimova will win this match.

This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Please gamble responsibly.