New Orleans Pelicans vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction & Betting Tips – NBA

The New Orleans Pelicans (13-39) prepare to host the Milwaukee Bucks (19-29) at the Smoothie King Center on February 5, 2026, in a matchup defined by heavy injury reports and trade deadline speculation. This contest represents a critical junction for both franchises; the Pelicans are looking to salvage a difficult season and snap a recent skid, while the Bucks are attempting to navigate a grueling stretch without their centerpiece, Giannis Antetokounmpo. With both teams struggling to find consistency, the betting market has positioned New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite, signaling a belief in their superior depth against a shorthanded Milwaukee rotation. As the 8:00 PM UTC tip-off approaches, market intelligence suggests a high-scoring affair where interior dominance and perimeter efficiency will dictate the outcome.

Betting Tips and Match Insights

This analysis provides a comprehensive deep dive into the statistical profiles, recent form, and professional market movements surrounding the Pelicans vs. Bucks clash. Readers will gain insight into how the absence of „The Greek Freak” shifts the tactical burden to Milwaukee’s backcourt, why the Pelicans’ home-court advantage is being weighted heavily by sharp bettors, and which player props offer the highest expected value based on current defensive matchups. By merging historical head-to-head data with real-time injury updates, we provide a blueprint for navigating the point spread and total lines for this high-stakes NBA encounter.

New Orleans Pelicans Results

The Pelicans enter this game in a state of flux, having struggled to maintain momentum throughout the 2025-26 campaign. While their overall record of 13-39 is among the league’s worst, their recent performance suggests a team that remains competitive in high-leverage situations. Over their last five games, New Orleans has shown flashes of offensive brilliance led by Trey Murphy III, though defensive lapses continue to undermine their efforts.

The Pelicans’ statistical profile reveals a significant disparity between their scoring potential (114.5 PPG) and their defensive efficiency, as evidenced by a -6.46 average plus/minus. Their offensive strategy relies heavily on the interior gravity of Zion Williamson and the floor-spacing provided by Trey Murphy III, who currently leads the team in scoring at 21.36 PPG. However, a 33.5% team average from beyond the arc ranks them near the bottom of the league, making them vulnerable to teams that can effectively pack the paint. At home, the Pelicans have historically been more resilient against the spread (16-11-0), suggesting that the Smoothie King Center environment provides a necessary boost to their defensive intensity.

Milwaukee Bucks Results

The Milwaukee Bucks find themselves in an unfamiliar position as they struggle through a 1-4 stretch in their last five outings. The narrative surrounding the team is currently dominated by the health of Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose calf injury has left a massive void in both scoring and rim protection. Despite these challenges, the Bucks have shown resilience, recently securing a dominant win over Chicago to prove they still possess offensive firepower.

Statistically, the Bucks have maintained a higher field goal percentage (47.8%) and a vastly superior three-point percentage (39.5%) compared to New Orleans. In the absence of Giannis, the burden has shifted to Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr., who have both stepped up as primary playmakers. Rollins, averaging 16.17 PPG and 5.29 APG, has become a focal point of the offense, while Kyle Kuzma’s recent 31-point outburst against the Bulls highlights the team’s „next man up” mentality. However, their defense has suffered significantly without their defensive anchor, allowing 115.6 points per game on average, which could be problematic against a physical Pelicans frontcourt.

Head-to-Head History

The historical rivalry between these two teams has been largely dominated by Milwaukee, particularly in the last two seasons. The Bucks’ length and transition offense have traditionally posed significant problems for the Pelicans’ defensive schemes.

Analysis of the last five matchups shows the Bucks winning four out of five, with an average margin of victory exceeding 10 points. Milwaukee’s ability to exploit New Orleans in the paint has been the deciding factor in these contests. However, it is vital to note that most of these victories occurred with a healthy Giannis Antetokounmpo. In the one game New Orleans won (March 2024), they successfully limited Milwaukee’s fast-break opportunities and won the rebounding battle. With the current Bucks roster missing key defensive pieces, the historical trend of Milwaukee dominance may be less relevant for this specific 2026 encounter.

Projected Starting Lineups

The lineup selections for this game are heavily influenced by the current injury reports. New Orleans coach James Borrego has recently favored an „ultra-big” lineup to maximize rebounding and interior scoring, while Doc Rivers is forced into a smaller, guard-heavy rotation due to frontcourt absences.

The Pelicans’ lineup features immense length, with Saddiq Bey and Zion Williamson providing a physical presence that few teams can match. The inclusion of Derik Queen at center has bolstered their offensive rebounding, which is a critical weakness for the current Bucks rotation. Conversely, the Bucks will rely on the perimeter shooting of Rollins and the versatility of Kyle Kuzma. The matchup at center between the rookie Queen and the veteran Myles Turner will be pivotal, as Turner’s ability to stretch the floor could pull the Pelicans’ rim protectors away from the basket.

Key Match Insights and Factors to Watch

1. Life Without Giannis: The Bucks are 1-3 ATS in their last four games without Antetokounmpo. His absence removes 27.1 points and nearly 10 rebounds from the floor, forcing role players into high-usage roles they may not be accustomed to.

2. The Zion Factor: Zion Williamson remains the most efficient interior scorer in this matchup. Against a Bucks team missing their primary help-defender, Zion is expected to see heavy volume in the restricted area.

3. Rest Advantage: The Pelicans are currently 5-2-0 ATS when playing with a rest advantage this season, the second-best mark in the NBA.

4. Ryan Rollins’ Emergence: Rollins has scored 20+ points in four of his last five games. His ability to navigate the Pelicans’ perimeter defense will be Milwaukee’s primary path to an upset.

5. Three-Point Disparity: Milwaukee shoots 39.5% from deep compared to New Orleans’ 33.5%. If the Bucks can turn this into a shootout, they negate the Pelicans’ size advantage.

6. Rebounding Battle: Milwaukee is a bottom-4 rebounding team in the league this season. New Orleans ranks 15th and has been aggressive on the offensive glass with Derik Queen.

7. Trade Deadline Distractions: With both teams involved in heavy trade rumors (specifically surrounding Giannis and Jordan Poole), team chemistry and focus could be impacted.

8. Pelicans’ Home ATS Record: New Orleans covers the spread at a much higher rate at home (59%) than on the road (48%), making the -4.5 line more attractive to professional bettors.

Market Probability Assessment

Based on professional betting consensus, the Pelicans are viewed as the „correct” favorite despite their inferior overall record. The opening line of -4.5 has held steady at most major sportsbooks, including FanDuel and BetMGM, which indicates that sharp money is not currently fighting the valuation. The Moneyline, hovering around -180 for New Orleans, suggests a 64.3% implied probability of a home win.

The professional market is heavily discounting the Bucks due to the confirmed absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo and the questionable status of Bobby Portis. Statistical models suggest that Giannis is worth approximately 6-7 points to the spread; without him, the Bucks transition from a slight favorite to a significant underdog. Furthermore, the Total Points line of 222.5 is receiving „Over” interest from sharp bettors, noting that the Pelicans’ defense allows 120.6 points per game and the Bucks just put up 131 against Chicago.

Free Betting Tips

• Target the Over 222.5: Historical data shows the „Over” has cashed in 15 of the last 18 meetings between these two teams. Both teams currently possess defenses ranked in the bottom third of the league.
• Saddiq Bey Player Props: Bey has averaged 23.6 points in recent road games and maintains a high usage rate in the Pelicans’ current „big” lineup. Look for his „Points Over” line.
• Derik Queen Rebounds: Milwaukee’s lack of size without Giannis makes them vulnerable on the glass. Queen has pulled down 7+ rebounds in four of his last six games; expect him to exceed his average here.
• First Quarter Spread: New Orleans has covered the 1Q spread in their last nine away games and typically starts strong at home. Look for them to lead after 12 minutes.
• Ryan Rollins Assists: With Rollins taking over primary playmaking duties, his assist numbers have surged. Against a Pelicans defense that allows 28.4 APG (28th in NBA), Rollins is a prime candidate for an „Assists Over” wager.

Final Prediction

New Orleans Pelicans is well-positioned to secure victory in this matchup based on current form, statistical advantages, and head-to-head dynamics.

Ready to place your bet? Head over to your preferred betting site and take advantage of this expert prediction!

⚠️ Responsible Gambling: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Please gamble responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.