Expected Value (EV)

Expected Value (EV) is a metric that shows the average profit or loss of a bet over the long run based on probability and odds.

It answers one question: is this bet profitable in theory?

How it works

• EV combines probability and odds

• Formula:
  EV = (Probability × Payout) − Stake

• Positive EV = profitable long term

• Negative EV = losing long term

Example

• Odds: 2.00

• Estimated probability: 55%

• EV = (0.55 × 2.00) − 1.00 = +0.10
  → Positive EV bet

Key characteristics

• Core concept in professional betting

• Independent of single bet outcomes

• Requires accurate probability estimation

Important note
A positive EV bet can still lose short term due to variance, but repeated negative EV bets will lose money over time.