A value bet is a wager placed when the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the true probability of the outcome.

It focuses on long-term profitability, not just picking winners.

How it works

• Bettor estimates the real probability of an event

• If bookmaker odds imply a lower probability, value exists

• Profit comes from repeated value, not single wins

Example

• True probability (your estimate): 60%

• Fair odds: 1.67

• Bookmaker odds: 2.00
  → This is a value bet

Key characteristics

• Core concept in professional betting

• Can lose short term due to variance

• Requires accurate probability assessment

Important note
Winning bets are not always value bets, and value bets can still lose.