Variance

Variance is the natural fluctuation between expected results and actual outcomes in sports betting.

It explains why short-term results often differ from long-term expectations.

How it works

• Even positive EV bets can lose

• Variance causes winning and losing streaks

• Results stabilize only over a large number of bets

Example

• Strategy with 55% win rate

• Losing streak of 10 bets is still statistically possible

• Long-term results align with expectation

Key characteristics

• Affects all betting strategies

• Independent of skill in the short term

• Decreases as sample size increases

Important note
Misunderstanding variance leads to overconfidence after wins and panic after losses.